TUCSON - So far this Winter, La Niña's living up to its calling cards: warm and dry.
Through January 8th, Tucson's Winter rainfall was running 0.67" below normal. Climatology says normal Winter rainfall to date is 1.17". Since the start of October, the Old Pueblo's rainfall deficit is over 2".
How long will La Niña linger in the Eastern Pacific? Numerous models indicate water temperatures off Mexico's west coast begin to warm back to normal heading into the Spring, possibly busting out of La Niña as early as mid-March.
What that could mean for the Spring outlook? Unfortunately more of the same.
Odds favor warmer than normal temperatures continuing during the March-May time frame. Much of Arizona stands a 40% chance of below normal Spring rainfall.