How La Niña could impact Tucson this Winter - KVOA | KVOA.com | Tucson, Arizona

How La Niña could impact Tucson this Winter

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TUCSON – What happens in the Eastern Pacific may play a role in our Winter weather. 

Waters off Mexico’s west coast are in a cooling trend, which may lead to La Niña in the December-February timeframe. According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a 54% chance of La Niña this Winter, with a 42% chance waters stay near normal. 

What could that mean for Southern Arizona? 

4WARN Meteorologist Jeff Beamish says that Winter La Niña events tend to bring warm and dry conditions to the Sonoran Desert. By no means is it a guarantee, but cooler than normal waters in the Eastern Pacific increases the odds for less valley rain & mountain snow. 

Based on weather records dating back to 1894, Tucson’s average Winter rainfall is 2.62”. The average Winter temperature for the Old Pueblo sits at 52.2° 

Losing hope for a wet and white Winter? 

At first glance, the potential developing La Niña looks to be weak, meaning sea surface temperatures are less than or equal to 0.5° below average. 

History says Tucson’s average Winter rainfall during a weak La Niña is 2.59”, which is just 0.03” shy of normal. If the long range outlook verifies, La Niña may ultimately have little impact on our weather late in the year.

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