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WASHINGTON, DC - The National Urban League says President Barack Obama may have a tougher time winning North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio in November should black voter turnout fall at least 5 percentage points below the record levels that helped put him in the White House.

Black voter turnout of 64.7 percent was significant in Obama's victory in 2008, and African Americans are considered solidly behind Obama now. But the Urban League says a drop in black turnout to about 60 percent or below could cost him. The league bases its conclusion on all other voting patterns remaining the same. But anything could change, such as a rise in Hispanic turnout, and offset a drop in black voter turnout.

Obama is to speak at the group's New Orleans convention, which begins July 25.